Benjamin Netanyahu was not planning to celebrate the 25th anniversary of his surprising electoral victory over veteran Simon Peres, who gave him the head of government in Israel for the first time.. Instead of blowing out candles, Netanyahu is counting down the minutes in the hope that the leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, will not announce the formation of a government before his term expires on Wednesday night.
Immersed in seven-party negotiations, Lapid is optimistic but admits that “there are still many obstacles until the creation of the new coalition and perhaps it is good because we must overcome them together. It's our first test, finding smart compromises for the big goal.”
Inevitable obstacles when trying to sew the most heterogeneous coalition in the history of Israel with two parties on the left (Meretz and Labor), two in the center (Yesh Atid and Blue and White), two on the right (Yamina and Nueva Esperanza), one liberal anti-religious conservative (Israel Beitenu) and one Islamist Arab (Raam) to reach 61 of 120 deputies of the Knesset (Parliament). Each of them can unravel the complex structure of Lapid in which he would be foreign minister by conceding the first two years of the head of government to the leader of Yamina, Naftali Bennett, before taking over.. It is true that he almost triples the number of seats, but also that without him, Netanyahu would remain in power until at least the new elections.
With only 6 seats (the seventh on his list chosen in the March 23 elections, Amichai Shikli, will vote against “being part of a government with the left”), Bennett is about to be prime minister. Only in a political scene as surreal as that of Israel in the last two years, a politician who was left out of Parliament in the 2019 elections and was already beginning to think about returning to High Tech can now be the one who leads the country.
The reason for the paralyzing political crisis and for the left to accept Bennett as prime minister has a first and last name: Benjamin Netanyahu. On his figure, the country has gone to the polls four times, numerous protests have been held in the streets, polarization and tension have multiplied and a trial for corruption has begun.. Against him, parties with abysmal ideological differences that not even in their worst nightmares saw themselves together have agreed to a cohabitation marriage with the sole objective of evicting Netanyahu from the official residence in Jerusalem.
The political drama is of such size that nobody remembers the coronavirus. And not only because on Sunday only 4 cases were registered.
The new government would focus on issues of economic and social consensus and put aside major issues of contention such as the conflict with the Palestinians. Bennett will not be able to materialize his old aspiration to annex territories where the colonies are located in the West Bank (occupied in the war of 67) and Meretz will not be able to evacuate settlements. Since some ministers passionately defend the two-state solution (Israel and Palestine) and others oppose it with the same passion, the continuation of the Status Quo is expected.
What will happen if the Islamist group Hamas breaks the truce and launches projectiles against Tel Aviv or Jerusalem? Given that the left would ask for a very limited response and the right a forceful retaliation, the forecast is that the cabinet will do what the Army and other security organizations recommend.
“We agree on 80% of the issues and we know how to talk about 20% of what we disagree with,” reassures Lapid, who hopes to make the announcement soon and points out that the latest intervention by his great rival is proof of the need for change of Government: “Netanyahu said that without him in power, he will be a danger to the people, state and soldiers of Israel. It was a dangerous speech from someone who has lost his brakes. His weakness weakens us.”
Cornered but without falling on the canvas, Netanyahu does not give up and increases his pressure so that a Bennett deputy whom he accuses of “scam” frustrates the new government. Targeting the noisy Likud machine online and on the street is Bennett's partner and Lapid's mission underdog, Ayelet Shaked, who did everything she could to get a Likud government formed.. At the moment without success because the far-right leader Bezalel Smotrish refused to receive the support of an Arab party as Netanyahu wanted and because Gideon Saar maintained his sanitary cordon over the prime minister.. Facing the last elections, Saar left the Likud alleging that “Netanyahu puts his personal interests before national ones”. His new party Nueva Esperanza did not fulfill its initial hope by obtaining only 6 seats, which nevertheless turned out to be very valuable because half were from Likud.. With them, Netanyahu would still be King Bibi.
At 71 years old and with the trial for alleged corruption underway, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history (96-99 and 2009 to date) could be head of the opposition in a few days. Supported by the largest party (30), it hopes and tries that the new government does not rise. And if it does, let it fall soon.
Given the political deadlock in the last two years in Israel around the figure of Benjamin Netanyahu, only the breaking of electoral promises guarantees the formation of a government. A year ago, it was the centrist leader Benny Gantz who surprised everyone and irritated his own when he broke his only great promise and, alleging the health and economic (coronavirus) and political crisis, agreed to a rotating coalition with Netanyahu. But the Likud leader was quick to renege on his promise to Gantz by dragging Israelis into the fourth election in two years in which, despite a successful vaccination, he failed to win a majority for his right-wing bloc.
Now it is the turn of Naftali Bennett who decides to break substantial electoral promises launched in March: he publicly promised not to form a government with the left, not to be under Yair Lapid as rotating prime minister, not to govern with the support of the party Islamist Arab Raam or to be prime minister if he gets only 10 seats (now he would be with 7). On the other hand, he fulfills an important promise – “I will do everything possible to avoid fifth elections and put an end to the crisis” – and the dream of heading the Government even if he barely has popular support and pays a high bill on the right where many feel betrayed.. / S. AND.