The model that allows us to know if a patient is going to survive Covid

At the height of the pandemic, it was a real mystery why some Covid patients became more virulently ill, and even died, sometimes having more favorable conditions than others who did not develop a serious clinical picture.. After the global health alert ended, many studies on the coronavirus have been carried out and its treatment and detection have been improved. Today, it can even be predicted how a patient will develop the disease.

This is possible thanks to a model that, based on the statistical analysis of clinical results of Covid patients, has been created by researchers from the University of Alicante (UA). This tool makes it possible to predict the outcome of Covid in each person.

The results of this study have been published by the scientific journal Heliyon and are the basis for the development of a mobile application (app) that could be used in the future if similar circumstances arose, sources from the academic institution reported this Friday.

Professor Carlos Frutos Marhuenda, from the UA Department of Agrochemistry and Biochemistry, is responsible for this research, which “has been possible thanks to the database of the HM hospitals in Madrid, which left it open for scientific purposes.” , according to the same sources.

Marhuenda explained that, by analyzing these clinical results of Covid patients, it was possible to assess which parameters were most important in order to predict the development of the disease.

He has pointed out that, with the results obtained from a first analysis carried out when the patient is admitted to the emergency services, they were able to detect or determine what the outcome of the disease would be.

“We could predict with an accuracy rate of more than 95% if the patient was going to die or if he was going to overcome the disease,” he assured.

According to Marhuenda, “this model could have been a very useful tool for medical personnel during the most difficult moments of the pandemic, as it would have helped make clinical decisions based on that information.”

“For example, in men, age was decisive as a risk factor, while in women, age was by no means the key factor in predicting the outcome of the disease,” said this researcher, who now has thanks to this study, they have put their efforts into developing an app that, with a simple and intuitive use, could be used in the event of another pandemic.

“We wanted to create a predictive model to assess gravity and know where it was going to evolve. To do this, we selected a series of factors from the analyzes of some 300 patients, from their admission to the end of the development of their disease, and the result was very good, reaching 95% accuracy in the prediction”, indicated Marhuenda. .

The model “was not used during the pandemic, but now, converted into an app, it could be very useful if similar circumstances occur,” he pointed out.