The race for 'green' aviation fuel begins with 56,000 million and 270,000 jobs at stake

Europe's interest in decarbonising the aviation sector could have an impact of around 56,000 million euros on Spain's GDP, where it could also generate 270,000 jobs. According to a study carried out by PwC for Iberia and Vueling, the five million tons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that Spain would need in 2050 could be produced with between 30 and 40 plants spread throughout the country. that would generate this wealth. In addition, the sector highlights the opportunity of being on time for this global race to lead the SAF market, especially in a country as dependent on tourism that arrives by plane as Spain is.

Thus, with a scenario of 32 plants throughout Spain (three plant biofuels, 12 biofuels from biomass, 12 developed with agricultural and forestry residues, and five synthetic fuels), with an investment of 22,362 million euros in the process. construction would achieve an impact on the Gross Domestic Product of 13,304 million euros and 251,340 jobs would be created. Later, in the operation phase, an estimated 50,129 million euros of income, 42,851 million impact on GDP and 19,703 jobs. As highlighted by the airlines at the event, they have already conveyed to the Government and the opposition the importance of investing in the sector, in addition to developing it and facilitating its regulation.

The report takes as reference the year 2019, prior to the pandemic, in which 942,000 commercial flights were recorded in Spain, 135 million passengers, a total consumption of 7.2 million liters of fuel and 18.5 million tons of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere.

The document was presented at an event attended by Teresa Parejo, Director of Sustainability at Iberia, and Franc Sanmartí, Director of Sustainability at Vueling. Both had an impact on the opportunity of entering this market. In Parejo's opinion, it can mean “employment and wealth” for Spain, but also independence and energy sovereignty for Europe. Sanmartí, for his part, recalled that it is a “fundamental lever for the decarbonization of air transport”. In any case, Europe has already made it clear that it believes that the SAF is the solution to decarbonise flights.

According to the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which is part of the fit for 55 legislative package, aircraft fuel suppliers at European Union airports will be obliged to increase the amount of sustainable fuels they supply. It will do so gradually -currently the percentage is practically testimonial- starting from 2% in 2025 until it reaches 70% in 2050 (the target was recently updated; before it was 63%). In between there will be several milestones -6% in 2030, 20% in 2035, 34% in 2040 and 42% in 2045-, several of which have also increased.

The aviation sector is currently responsible for between 2% and 3% of global CO2 emissions, although flights are expected to increase by 128% by 2050, which would mean, according to the report, that the percentage of emissions will between 10% and 20% in the same year. Hence, there is so much interest in these renewable fuels, since they would allow emissions not only not to grow, but also to be reduced.

How this will occur will vary depending on which sustainable fuels are used and to what extent.. There is no single solution and they are not all equally developed, so their implementation will be gradual. Thus, for example, the first generation (HEFA), which are created from vegetable oils, are a mature and tangible technology that allows reducing emissions between 35% and 85%.. Producing a ton of HEFA costs 1,375 euros. The second generation ones use waste -there are various types- and also provide a circular economy component. However, they depend on the existence of these residues and for the moment they are more expensive (between 2,050 and 2,450 euros per ton).

The third, more long-term solution involves the seemingly ubiquitous green hydrogen.. Not as fuel itself – that possibility will exist, but it is even more distant – but as raw material for synthetic fuels, which also use CO2 captured from the atmosphere.. It can mean a 100% reduction in emissions, but at the moment it is in the development phase and it still costs 3,500 euros per ton. In 2050 it will represent between 40% and 50% of all the SAF consumed in Spain, depending on the scenario. The document also analyzes the potential for hydrogen production in Spain, which would go from 3 million tons in 2030 to 33 million in 2050, of which 3.5 million would be used for transport.

Among the various types of 'green' fuel, PwC estimates an annual production capacity of 7 million tons in Spain, which would mean being well above the demand that is expected even in 2050, both in the scenario proposed by ReFuelEU ( 2.6 million tons), as well as the more ambitious Net Zero (3.3 million). By communities, Andalusia would lead production, with 27.6% of the entire SAF, followed by Castilla y León (18.4%), Castilla-La Mancha (14.4%) and Catalonia (8.4%). To achieve this, between 27 and 35 biofuel production plants and another five synthetic fuel plants would be necessary.