Regardless of the tug of war that he has agreed with the independentistas and how long the process lasts (there will be threats and suspense to feed the epic, as the national rhapsodes like), Sánchez will be sworn in as president.
I’m not saying that Feijóo shouldn’t try, but that, no matter how hard he tries, the script is written in advance. The sooner the scenario is assumed, the better for everyone, and especially for Feijóo, who is on everyone’s lips for having stayed in no man’s land.
As Javier Caraballo rightly pointed out, the Galician is still in a state of shock, sleeping with Michavila’s Excel files under his pillow, unable to assimilate the results of 23-J, as has been verified with his failed moves to move forward Cuca Gamarra’s candidacy, the expectations generated and her more than erratic relationship with Vox.
Now that we are going to have co-official languages even in the soup, someone will have to say that the time has come to drop the donkey and get to work in a legislature that seems to be one of the most complicated and vital in democracy..
The context is that of a period that begins as the previous one ended, at its peak of polarization and with the anger machine, that is, the social networks, operating at maximum power, as it cannot be otherwise if the PSOE begins to satisfy the requests of the string of partners, including the fugitive, who support him in power.
It is what Michael Reid, British journalist and author of Spain: The Trials and Triumphs of a Modern European, calls the narcissism of Spain’s small differences, or how local and regional interests are imposed on the generals in this kingdom of taifas, to Despite the fact that there are many more elements that unite us than those that separate us.
It is not only that Title VIII of the Constitution is imperfect, which could well be, and requires an ad hoc federalist debate, but that there are certain nationalist formations that have made coercion to the State their modus vivendi and, in case of lowering of the train, they run the risk of disappointing all that multitude of voters that they have dragged with them and that now they cannot control.
The mess of the co-official languages in the Lower House is paradigmatic of what is to come, although we all know that the main course will come with the amnesty and the referendum to the taste of the Catalan independentistas. Fish in the cave.
It will be difficult to satisfy these demands without leaving a few hairs (those of the Constitution) in the cat flap. It will be difficult to get out of this dilemma without ending the blocks with clubs.
The economic issue will also mark this new legislature, as it brings the end of the expansionary cycle and zero rates and the return of fiscal rules, which will lead to significant tax increases and a more than notable cut in spending.
Of the first, increasing tax pressure, Sánchez has a curriculum that supports him as an accomplished leader, but of the second, putting in the scissors, he has not shown any signs of knowing how to do it and, even less, of how to reach an agreement with the rest of his allies..
The other hot potato that will have to be unblocked will be that of the judiciary, where PSOE and PP have staged a sad spectacle, ignoring their constitutional obligations and leaving Justice in the dark by not being able to renew many of the vacant positions.. If this situation continues over time, Brussels has already warned of the opening of a sanctioning procedure. The situation is untenable.
A devilish scenario —crossed interests, political tension, deficit cut, judicial pact— that requires a plan from someone who won the elections, but who, due to the prevailing bibloquism, is called upon to lead the opposition.
The first unknown that he has to clear up is whether he, accustomed to governing with an absolute majority in Galicia, is willing to cross the desert. If so, which should, because the data supports it, you have to say it loud and make a team according to the needs. A team that will not be to govern, but to fight the copper from the second line.
You will have to develop a plan according to the situation. Sánchez is going to govern and he is going to do so for a more or less long period. If he enters the rag of the polarizing game, Feijóo has everything to lose, as could be verified in the general passes. In the field of you more, the president is unbeatable.
If he focuses on the economy, as he should have done last season, and didn’t, he has more to gain. No matter how much the PSOE takes advantage of the macro data, the electorate does not end up trusting the spendthrift policy of the Socialists based on past experiences.
With everything and with that, the main point that Feijóo must clarify, the one that weighs on him like a stone and has weighed down his chances of reaching Moncloa, is the one referring to the role of Vox in his relationship with the Popular Party. Until you clear up this unknown, the elephant will still be in the room.
The voter does not punish the PP so much for the fact that it is or is not a friend of those of Abascal as for its ambiguity when it comes to speaking and dealing with this formation. Either with or without you. There are no more options. Feijóo must choose.