According to recent forecasts by Goldman Sachs, Spain is projected to become the top-performing economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the coming years.

The bank predicts that Spain’s economy will accelerate in 2022, with a growth rate of 6.5%, surpassing the estimated 4.5% growth for this year. This forecast positions Spain ahead of other major advanced economies.

While Goldman Sachs is slightly more cautious than the market consensus on Spain’s 2021 GDP growth, which is expected to reach 4.5% compared to the consensus of 5.5% and the government’s expectation of 6.5%, the bank is optimistic about Spain’s prospects as the world’s fastest-growing advanced economy in 2022.

They anticipate a growth rate of 6.5%, seven tenths higher than the consensus estimate.

Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs foresees the Spanish economy maintaining its growth momentum, with a projected growth rate of 3.9% in 2023, surpassing other major advanced economies.

The bank expects growth to moderate to 2.3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 while outperforming growth forecasts for the Eurozone and other major European economies during those years.

Globally, Goldman Sachs believes that despite having passed the peak of the economic recovery, strong expansion will continue in the coming quarters, driven by increased consumption resulting from accumulated savings, advancements in public health issues, and inventory reconstruction.

The bank’s global GDP growth projections indicate a growth rate of 5.9% for this year, which is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2022, still above the potential global growth rate.

Subsequently, growth is anticipated to slow down to 3.4% in 2023 and further decline to 3.3% and 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Regarding the United States, Goldman Sachs predicts a growth rate of 5.5% for this year, followed by a gradual loss of momentum in subsequent years, with GDP growth projected at 3.9% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.

However, the bank expects a recovery in GDP growth to reach 2.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.

For the Eurozone, Goldman Sachs forecasts a GDP growth rate of 5.2% for this year, which is expected to decrease to 4.4% in 2022. In subsequent years, growth is anticipated to further decline to 2.4% in 2023, 1.6% in 2024, and 1.4% in 2025.

Goldman Sachs analysts express increased optimism about the impact of fiscal policies on economic growth, particularly in the euro area, where a potential German center-left coalition is expected to increase spending, coupled with the implementation of the EU recovery fund that will support significant investment projects starting next year.

The bank also expresses confidence in the positive dynamics of US consumption, bolstered by the approved infrastructure plan.

Looking at monetary policy, Goldman Sachs foresees the European Central Bank (ECB) raising rates in 2024, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise rates in 2022.

The analysts note that unexpected inflation in the United States prompted a revision in their forecast for a rate hike by the Fed in the following year. They do not anticipate changes in ECB rates until 2024.

Goldman Sachs expects several central banks in advanced economies to be in the process of normalizing rates by the time the Fed initiates its hike.

For instance, New Zealand is projected to increase rates by 75 basis points, Canada by 40 basis points, and the United Kingdom with an initial 15 basis point hike, likely in December, followed by a 25 basis point hike in May and November 2022.

However, the analysts highlight that certain central banks, such as the ECB and the Reserve Bank of Australia, may lag behind in raising rates.

They predict the ECB’s rates will remain unchanged until the third quarter of 2024, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rates until the fourth quarter of 2023.