Tag Archives: global economy

BRICS Countries Seek Equal Footing in Global Arena: Shaping the New Bipolar Order

The BRICS no longer want to show themselves to the world as five developing countries, but want to be on an equal footing with the United States and the European Union.

And it is that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa ask that they be taken seriously in the new bipolar order, also marked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the states, meeting these days in Johannesburg, consider that their economic potential is more enough not to be on a second step.

“The changes that have taken place in the BRICS economies over the past decade have gone a long way in transforming the shape of the global economy,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is holding the presidency.

In another era, these five countries were on a kind of waiting list against the great powers, but the scenario has changed, especially for China.

Beijing not only sets the pace for this group, but has also become a world engine, especially at a technological level.

“Together, the BRICS countries represent a quarter of the world economy, constitute a fifth of world trade and are home to more than forty percent of the world’s population,” said the

South African president, who also indicated that the collaboration between governments goes beyond “strengthening relations between governments”.

Likewise, the Brazilian leader, Lula da Silva, has come to ask at the summit “the use of a reference currency” to promote commercial relations.

The BRICS, however, coincide in having a different vision of the war in Ukraine, especially since they have Russia in it: they look from the equidistance to the anger of the Western bloc, to which they present themselves as a “counterweight”.

The conflict has remained in the background, but South Africa and China have found space to issue a joint statement.

“The parties agreed that dialogue and negotiation are the only feasible way out to resolve the Ukrainian crisis and they will insist on promoting peace and talks to play a constructive role in the political solution of the issue,” they explained, again representing the position of the Asian giant, which continues to be viewed with suspicion by Washington and Brussels.

In this sense, Xi Jinping and Ramaphosa have agreed to “continue to strengthen cooperation in international affairs and multilateral institutions, and jointly safeguard the international system with the United Nations as the core”, relying on International Law, safeguarding the rights and interests of developing countries” and respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The tone is almost always the same for these countries, in a meeting also marked by the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has delegated his Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

Brazil, for its part, believes that the time has come for greater economic integration in the group, precisely to compete with Western players.

Thus, Lula da Silva has urged “the adoption of a reference unit of account for trade between the BRICS countries that will not replace our national currencies”.

And he gave as an example of this “progress” the New Development Bank (NBD), which was established seven years ago, with “positive” results in the eyes of the five states.

“The New Development Bank already represents a milestone in effective collaboration between emerging economies and is expected to be the world leader in financing projects that address the most pressing challenges of our time,” Lula concluded.

Spain’s Robust Economic Growth Forecasts Signal Prominence in the Global Arena

According to recent forecasts by Goldman Sachs, Spain is projected to become the top-performing economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the coming years.

The bank predicts that Spain’s economy will accelerate in 2022, with a growth rate of 6.5%, surpassing the estimated 4.5% growth for this year. This forecast positions Spain ahead of other major advanced economies.

Photo. Spain.

While Goldman Sachs is slightly more cautious than the market consensus on Spain’s 2021 GDP growth, which is expected to reach 4.5% compared to the consensus of 5.5% and the government’s expectation of 6.5%, the bank is optimistic about Spain’s prospects as the world’s fastest-growing advanced economy in 2022.

Photo: Goldman Sachs

They anticipate a growth rate of 6.5%, seven tenths higher than the consensus estimate.

Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs foresees the Spanish economy maintaining its growth momentum, with a projected growth rate of 3.9% in 2023, surpassing other major advanced economies.

The bank expects growth to moderate to 2.3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 while outperforming growth forecasts for the Eurozone and other major European economies during those years.

Globally, Goldman Sachs believes that despite having passed the peak of the economic recovery, strong expansion will continue in the coming quarters, driven by increased consumption resulting from accumulated savings, advancements in public health issues, and inventory reconstruction.

Photo: Goldman Sachs

The bank’s global GDP growth projections indicate a growth rate of 5.9% for this year, which is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2022, still above the potential global growth rate.

Subsequently, growth is anticipated to slow down to 3.4% in 2023 and further decline to 3.3% and 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Regarding the United States, Goldman Sachs predicts a growth rate of 5.5% for this year, followed by a gradual loss of momentum in subsequent years, with GDP growth projected at 3.9% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.

However, the bank expects a recovery in GDP growth to reach 2.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.

For the Eurozone, Goldman Sachs forecasts a GDP growth rate of 5.2% for this year, which is expected to decrease to 4.4% in 2022. In subsequent years, growth is anticipated to further decline to 2.4% in 2023, 1.6% in 2024, and 1.4% in 2025.

Goldman Sachs analysts express increased optimism about the impact of fiscal policies on economic growth, particularly in the euro area, where a potential German center-left coalition is expected to increase spending, coupled with the implementation of the EU recovery fund that will support significant investment projects starting next year.

Photo: Goldman Sachs

The bank also expresses confidence in the positive dynamics of US consumption, bolstered by the approved infrastructure plan.

Looking at monetary policy, Goldman Sachs foresees the European Central Bank (ECB) raising rates in 2024, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise rates in 2022.

The analysts note that unexpected inflation in the United States prompted a revision in their forecast for a rate hike by the Fed in the following year. They do not anticipate changes in ECB rates until 2024.

Photo: Flag spain and United States

Goldman Sachs expects several central banks in advanced economies to be in the process of normalizing rates by the time the Fed initiates its hike.

For instance, New Zealand is projected to increase rates by 75 basis points, Canada by 40 basis points, and the United Kingdom with an initial 15 basis point hike, likely in December, followed by a 25 basis point hike in May and November 2022.

Photo: New Zealand.

However, the analysts highlight that certain central banks, such as the ECB and the Reserve Bank of Australia, may lag behind in raising rates.

They predict the ECB’s rates will remain unchanged until the third quarter of 2024, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rates until the fourth quarter of 2023.