In recent days, a meme has circulated in which a supposed PSOE voter from Extremadura is perplexed when he realizes that his vote will help Carles Puigdemont’s party, Junts, have a parliamentary group in Congress.
That is more or less what is going to happen tomorrow, after the Socialists have ceded four of their deputies to him so that he reaches the minimum required and can thus obtain significant economic considerations and more parliamentary autonomy.
It was one of the demands of the independentistas to support an eventual investiture of Pedro Sánchez. The meme with the face of the confused Extremaduran socialist was very funny. But unfortunately also implausible.
Because, unlike what happened in the two 2019 elections, the PSOE voter in those of July 23 knew perfectly well what Pedro Sánchez’s plans were.
He knew that, in the event that the right did not add a sufficient majority, Sánchez would seek the support of Sumar, the PNV and the independentistas to be sworn in and then legislate.
Perhaps the most optimistic thought that it would not be necessary to court Junts, but obviously, if it were, the PSOE was going to do it.
In fact, the PSOE voter —and perhaps any voter as well— knew that Pedro Sánchez was not going to be particularly careful when it came to seeking support: he would try to get all the support he needed, those who were.
Because that is the new structural reality of Spanish politics: that the left will only be able to govern with the support of the independence movement.
The PSOE, which is the most effective machine for generating political narratives in Spain, will say that it is a commitment to harmony, or an opportunity to resolve territorial conflicts, or whatever else it thinks its voters will find acceptable, but it’s something else.
Since the two big parties have decided that they are not going to support each other in parliament in any case, much less form a great coalition, it has become a destination. And, contrary to what many want to think, it will be for a long time.
Not just character
A relevant part of public opinion has taken to attributing much of what happens in Spanish politics, and particularly on the left, to the character of Sánchez. He is capable of anything to stay in power —he repeats himself—, he has no qualms about lying, he has betrayed the ideology of his party to survive.
All this has a lot of truth. But these traits are applicable to a greater or lesser extent to all politicians who govern without sufficient majorities.
And, in recent times, it has become the perfect excuse for those who do not want to see that a change has taken place in our political system that will be lasting.. The stage that emerged with the 1978 Constitution can last, and it is desirable that it do so.
But it has changed profoundly. The time for absolute majorities is over (in the nine legislatures, between 1982 and 2015, there were five).
The time has come to an end when the two big parties could rely on the moderate nationalist parties in a timely manner (this is what happened in the other four).
The possibility of more or less lasting transversal agreements has ended (surely the last case was the approval of article 155 in 2017). The system was not meant to work with two permanent blocks unable to cooperate, but it will have to learn to operate like that because that is now its core feature.
Unlike Sánchez, however, Alberto Núñez Feijóo seems not to have realized this structural transformation.. Or, rather, he has not resigned himself to it.
Feijóo acts as if that earthquake only affected the left and he could continue acting like the good old days. Hence his untimely attempt to negotiate with the PNV, or even with Junts, the support for his investiture at the end of September. Perhaps it is simply a show of parliamentary courtesy. In that case, it’s appreciated.
But if someone in the PP believes that they can get the support of those who are already members of the other structural block, or that in the future they will have some other option than to govern with the support of Vox, they are living trapped in a past mentality..
That tomorrow the table of Congress approves that the PSOE lend deputies to Junts so that it has its own parliamentary group is almost the least of it. And the character of the current president is a very influential element, but only temporary, of our democracy.
What is really relevant is that this has been transformed in a structural way and that, as long as the two big parties refuse to cooperate, any PSOE leader of the future will have to act in a very similar way to that of Sánchez.
In the same way, there will come a time when Feijóo or whoever replaces him at the head of the PP will realize that there is no way to avoid doing everything or almost everything with Vox.
And just as the PSOE voter forgives his alliances, the PP voter will forgive him. As much as rivals laugh at them in memes.
Of course, none of this is good news. In reality, they are quite bad, both for the governance of the country and for its stability and for the advancement of centrist and moderate policies.
But it is what we Spaniards have given ourselves and we should not blame anyone else for it. Although sometimes it is really tempting to attribute it to the exasperating and often harmful character of the president.
