Tag Archives: Shifting Alliances

Spain’s Political Landscape Tense Ahead of Investiture Decision

Felipe VI’s consultations with the different political forces are advancing, but some do not want to show all their cards and others admit they are unable to clear up the question of whether or not there will be an investiture session next week.

Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo will attend the round of meetings at Zarzuela this Tuesday without having guaranteed the necessary support, after a month of discreet conversations and a contact that resulted in the formation of a Board controlled by the majority of the parties that support the government in office.

Feijóo maintains his willingness to submit to the vote despite the weak situation in which he finds himself and with the support of Vox now in doubt. Sánchez, for his part, threatens to leave him free to delve into the wear and tear of another parliamentary defeat. But it is the King who has the ball in his court. You have three options: propose Sánchez, Feijóo… or delay the decision. The PNV points out that the round of contacts will not serve to designate a solid candidate.

UPN and the Canarian Coalition have shielded their support for Feijóo, but he would not even get out of the siding by adding Vox. In this scenario, other parties consulted by El Confidencial are already agitating the scenario of a second round of consultations, which would give the leader of the PP and, above all, Sánchez, more time to try to tie up the support they need.

They require an absolute majority in the first vote, more yes than no 48 hours later. And, of the four parties that have excluded themselves from the talks with the monarch, Junts per Catalunya is the great unknown. Puigdemont continues to hold the key for the coalition to remain in Moncloa.

On Monday, the acting second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, criticized that these formations have “declined” to go to consultations to “explain” their positions. The leader of Sumar was very careful not to venture what Felipe VI will do, after his interview with the monarch, but he also made it clear that there is only “one real possibility” of obtaining the majority: that of the block of which he is a part.

For their part, acting Executive sources acknowledge that, although the negotiation is expected to be difficult, Junts has taken “very important steps”, not only with its support in the voting of the Table. They also point out that the position that Vox adopts this Tuesday, after his appointment with Felipe VI, will be decisive in clarifying whether the King will designate Feijóo as a candidate.

If it has 172 endorsements, they say, it would make some sense that it wanted to make them visible. Although they are not enough to make him president. The PSOE, as it did since the general elections of 23-J, steps on the brake.

This Monday, the acting Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, demanded to give the King “time” to decide on the candidate, almost in parallel to the fact that his party communicated to Feijóo that it will not make efforts to prevent him from running for a “fake investiture “.

On the one hand, the Socialists charged against the Popular Party for pressing the monarch “daily” to propose Feijóo and, on the other, they gloated that the conservative leader attended an investiture without having his support tied up, assuming that will crash against the parliamentary majority.

Sánchez’s little haste collides with Feijóo’s accelerated roadmap. Despite the doubts that important party leaders express in private, the PP leader will ask the King to propose him as a candidate to go to an investiture session, even with the almost certainty that it will end in failure.

Some barons of the PP support the decision of the leadership, understanding that Feijóo must reverse the feeling of defeat that has settled in the ranks of the popular and fight as the “winner of the elections”.

Despite the more than possible failure, the party leadership reiterates that starring in an investiture would allow Feijóo to present “a model of the country”. A session with campaign overtones before a possible scenario of a return to the polls in December.

In the PP there are other voices that warn, however, that exposing themselves to another parliamentary defeat after the “ridicule” of the Congress Table would be “suicide” for Feijóo.

The same sources urge the popular leader to “assume reality” and prepare for a “tough” opposition to Sánchez to bring down a government as soon as possible that, if consummated, would be mired in “instability”.. “We lack a logical and solid parliamentary majority to govern,” say critics of Feijóo’s strategy.

As El Confidencial announced, the PP leader’s plan goes from the outset to achieve the King’s order to force an investiture in the last week of August. If, as everything indicates, it is unsuccessful -Feijóo needs an absolute majority-, a period of two months would automatically open to light a government majority.

In the event that no vote has prospered within that period, the Cortes would be dissolved and elections would be held at the end of the year, with the horizon set at December 17. PP parliamentary sources confirm that if they receive the green light in the Zarzuela, the session could be set for next week, on August 30 or 31.

In this case, it would be the new president of Congress, Francina Armengol, who must give the final go-ahead to Feijóo’s calendar. But the popular do not believe that the socialist leader put obstacles. “The more time passes, the more expensive Junts and ERC can make their support”, they trust.

In Ferraz, in fact, they confirmed this Monday that they will let Feijóo walk towards his “third setback” if he is chosen by the King. “We are not going to elbow each other,” added socialist sources.

Genoa insists that Feijóo will arrive at the meeting with the King with more support than Sánchez has, since he does not yet have the explicit support of the PNV, Junts or ERC. But the game could be more complicated for Feijóo due to the break with Vox.

Santiago Abascal will be the first of the leaders who will meet with Felipe VI this Tuesday, and the party has not yet confirmed whether it will convey to the monarch that its 33 deputies will support Feijóo if he is proposed or, on the contrary, avoid compromising that support.

At this time, Feijóo has 139 tied votes. Only with Sumar, Sánchez adds 152. If this scenario is confirmed, the option that Felipe VI chooses to delay the decision and repeat the round of consultations later would win integers.

Vox has made its support for Feijóo conditional on him “picking up the phone” and clarifying whether he “opts for the Murcia or Valencia route” in his relationship with Abascal. The ultra party has not forgiven the PP for leaving it out of the Congress Table, and demands “urgent explanations” before clarifying the meaning of its vote.

“If Feijóo wants to raise a sanitary cordon for Vox, he will not have our support,” warn sources close to Abascal. So far, Genoa has not given in to pressure and there have been no contacts between the two directions. They trust, however, that Abascal “keeps his word” and does not get out of the equation at a key moment.

Navigating Political Challenges: Feijóo’s Dilemmas in Spain’s Complex Landscape

Regardless of the tug of war that he has agreed with the independentistas and how long the process lasts (there will be threats and suspense to feed the epic, as the national rhapsodes like), Sánchez will be sworn in as president.

I’m not saying that Feijóo shouldn’t try, but that, no matter how hard he tries, the script is written in advance. The sooner the scenario is assumed, the better for everyone, and especially for Feijóo, who is on everyone’s lips for having stayed in no man’s land.

As Javier Caraballo rightly pointed out, the Galician is still in a state of shock, sleeping with Michavila’s Excel files under his pillow, unable to assimilate the results of 23-J, as has been verified with his failed moves to move forward Cuca Gamarra’s candidacy, the expectations generated and her more than erratic relationship with Vox.

Now that we are going to have co-official languages even in the soup, someone will have to say that the time has come to drop the donkey and get to work in a legislature that seems to be one of the most complicated and vital in democracy..

The context is that of a period that begins as the previous one ended, at its peak of polarization and with the anger machine, that is, the social networks, operating at maximum power, as it cannot be otherwise if the PSOE begins to satisfy the requests of the string of partners, including the fugitive, who support him in power.

It is what Michael Reid, British journalist and author of Spain: The Trials and Triumphs of a Modern European, calls the narcissism of Spain’s small differences, or how local and regional interests are imposed on the generals in this kingdom of taifas, to Despite the fact that there are many more elements that unite us than those that separate us.

It is not only that Title VIII of the Constitution is imperfect, which could well be, and requires an ad hoc federalist debate, but that there are certain nationalist formations that have made coercion to the State their modus vivendi and, in case of lowering of the train, they run the risk of disappointing all that multitude of voters that they have dragged with them and that now they cannot control.

The mess of the co-official languages in the Lower House is paradigmatic of what is to come, although we all know that the main course will come with the amnesty and the referendum to the taste of the Catalan independentistas. Fish in the cave.

It will be difficult to satisfy these demands without leaving a few hairs (those of the Constitution) in the cat flap. It will be difficult to get out of this dilemma without ending the blocks with clubs.

The economic issue will also mark this new legislature, as it brings the end of the expansionary cycle and zero rates and the return of fiscal rules, which will lead to significant tax increases and a more than notable cut in spending.

Of the first, increasing tax pressure, Sánchez has a curriculum that supports him as an accomplished leader, but of the second, putting in the scissors, he has not shown any signs of knowing how to do it and, even less, of how to reach an agreement with the rest of his allies..

The other hot potato that will have to be unblocked will be that of the judiciary, where PSOE and PP have staged a sad spectacle, ignoring their constitutional obligations and leaving Justice in the dark by not being able to renew many of the vacant positions.. If this situation continues over time, Brussels has already warned of the opening of a sanctioning procedure. The situation is untenable.

A devilish scenario —crossed interests, political tension, deficit cut, judicial pact— that requires a plan from someone who won the elections, but who, due to the prevailing bibloquism, is called upon to lead the opposition.

The first unknown that he has to clear up is whether he, accustomed to governing with an absolute majority in Galicia, is willing to cross the desert. If so, which should, because the data supports it, you have to say it loud and make a team according to the needs. A team that will not be to govern, but to fight the copper from the second line.

You will have to develop a plan according to the situation. Sánchez is going to govern and he is going to do so for a more or less long period. If he enters the rag of the polarizing game, Feijóo has everything to lose, as could be verified in the general passes. In the field of you more, the president is unbeatable.

If he focuses on the economy, as he should have done last season, and didn’t, he has more to gain. No matter how much the PSOE takes advantage of the macro data, the electorate does not end up trusting the spendthrift policy of the Socialists based on past experiences.

With everything and with that, the main point that Feijóo must clarify, the one that weighs on him like a stone and has weighed down his chances of reaching Moncloa, is the one referring to the role of Vox in his relationship with the Popular Party. Until you clear up this unknown, the elephant will still be in the room.

The voter does not punish the PP so much for the fact that it is or is not a friend of those of Abascal as for its ambiguity when it comes to speaking and dealing with this formation. Either with or without you. There are no more options. Feijóo must choose.