Tag Archives: Spanish Politics

SPAIN

Shifts in Spanish Politics: A Structural Transformation in Governance

Leave a comment

In recent days, a meme has circulated in which a supposed PSOE voter from Extremadura is perplexed when he realizes that his vote will help Carles Puigdemont’s party, Junts, have a parliamentary group in Congress.

That is more or less what is going to happen tomorrow, after the Socialists have ceded four of their deputies to him so that he reaches the minimum required and can thus obtain significant economic considerations and more parliamentary autonomy.

It was one of the demands of the independentistas to support an eventual investiture of Pedro Sánchez. The meme with the face of the confused Extremaduran socialist was very funny. But unfortunately also implausible.

Because, unlike what happened in the two 2019 elections, the PSOE voter in those of July 23 knew perfectly well what Pedro Sánchez’s plans were.

He knew that, in the event that the right did not add a sufficient majority, Sánchez would seek the support of Sumar, the PNV and the independentistas to be sworn in and then legislate.

Perhaps the most optimistic thought that it would not be necessary to court Junts, but obviously, if it were, the PSOE was going to do it.

In fact, the PSOE voter —and perhaps any voter as well— knew that Pedro Sánchez was not going to be particularly careful when it came to seeking support: he would try to get all the support he needed, those who were.

Because that is the new structural reality of Spanish politics: that the left will only be able to govern with the support of the independence movement.

The PSOE, which is the most effective machine for generating political narratives in Spain, will say that it is a commitment to harmony, or an opportunity to resolve territorial conflicts, or whatever else it thinks its voters will find acceptable, but it’s something else.

Since the two big parties have decided that they are not going to support each other in parliament in any case, much less form a great coalition, it has become a destination. And, contrary to what many want to think, it will be for a long time.

Not just character

A relevant part of public opinion has taken to attributing much of what happens in Spanish politics, and particularly on the left, to the character of Sánchez. He is capable of anything to stay in power —he repeats himself—, he has no qualms about lying, he has betrayed the ideology of his party to survive.

All this has a lot of truth. But these traits are applicable to a greater or lesser extent to all politicians who govern without sufficient majorities.

And, in recent times, it has become the perfect excuse for those who do not want to see that a change has taken place in our political system that will be lasting.. The stage that emerged with the 1978 Constitution can last, and it is desirable that it do so.

But it has changed profoundly. The time for absolute majorities is over (in the nine legislatures, between 1982 and 2015, there were five).

The time has come to an end when the two big parties could rely on the moderate nationalist parties in a timely manner (this is what happened in the other four).

The possibility of more or less lasting transversal agreements has ended (surely the last case was the approval of article 155 in 2017). The system was not meant to work with two permanent blocks unable to cooperate, but it will have to learn to operate like that because that is now its core feature.

Unlike Sánchez, however, Alberto Núñez Feijóo seems not to have realized this structural transformation.. Or, rather, he has not resigned himself to it.

Feijóo acts as if that earthquake only affected the left and he could continue acting like the good old days. Hence his untimely attempt to negotiate with the PNV, or even with Junts, the support for his investiture at the end of September. Perhaps it is simply a show of parliamentary courtesy. In that case, it’s appreciated.

But if someone in the PP believes that they can get the support of those who are already members of the other structural block, or that in the future they will have some other option than to govern with the support of Vox, they are living trapped in a past mentality..

That tomorrow the table of Congress approves that the PSOE lend deputies to Junts so that it has its own parliamentary group is almost the least of it. And the character of the current president is a very influential element, but only temporary, of our democracy.

What is really relevant is that this has been transformed in a structural way and that, as long as the two big parties refuse to cooperate, any PSOE leader of the future will have to act in a very similar way to that of Sánchez.

In the same way, there will come a time when Feijóo or whoever replaces him at the head of the PP will realize that there is no way to avoid doing everything or almost everything with Vox.

And just as the PSOE voter forgives his alliances, the PP voter will forgive him. As much as rivals laugh at them in memes.

Of course, none of this is good news. In reality, they are quite bad, both for the governance of the country and for its stability and for the advancement of centrist and moderate policies.

But it is what we Spaniards have given ourselves and we should not blame anyone else for it. Although sometimes it is really tempting to attribute it to the exasperating and often harmful character of the president.

SPAIN

Political Maneuvering and Negotiations Surrounding Feijóo’s Government Formation Efforts

Leave a comment

The King’s commission to Alberto Núñez Feijóo to try to form a government not only activates the electoral counter.

It also limits to one month the term that the PP leader has to seek the four supports that he lacks to save a sufficient majority that will take him to Moncloa. It is not an easy task.

In fact, it is “almost impossible”, according to important party leaders. But Feijóo, they say in the national leadership of the party, must “fight until the end” and seek the votes, if necessary, from under the stones.

The popular leader is already putting together his contact agenda, which he will launch starting next week.

One of the clear and primary objectives that they contemplate in Genoa is to invite the acting head of the Executive to a formal meeting with the candidate for the investiture. Go or not, they understand in the PP, the offer is intended to show who was “the winner of the elections” and who was “the loser”.

The party has no hope that Sánchez will accept Feijóo’s outstretched hand in any way to allow a government in the minority of the most voted list, the proposal that the popular leader defended over and over again during the electoral campaign.

The popular ones assume that the socialist leader maneuvers in parallel to tie his own parliamentary majority, with the help of nationalists and independentistas.

This Wednesday, without going any further, both Sumar and the PSOE have assigned two deputies each to ERC and Junts so that they have their own group in the Lower House.

But the PP still harbors some hope. Genoa celebrates that Francina Armengol has given in to her proposal to delay the investiture session to September 26 and 27, and they reiterate that if they already considered the vote lost, they would have asked to end a debate as soon as possible in the last week of August to force elections before Christmas.

It was the initial roadmap, but the PP has recovered some optimism after achieving the King’s order. “We have to negotiate. Everything is possible”, reiterated a senior official from Genoa. “You have to be patient, because politics changes a lot. It is difficult, but not impossible”, adds a regional baron.

What is also taken for granted in the party is that Feijóo will try to find possible internal fissures in the ranks of the Socialists and will look for leaders who are critical of Sánchez’s strategy and his alliance with Puigdemont, on whom it depends entirely to re-edit the coalition. of government.

Already in the campaign, the leader of the PP advanced that, if he won the elections, he would call the PSOE barons to put pressure on Sánchez and for him to abstain from his investiture.

This scenario is discarded, but not the option of attracting possible disscolos, but not facing Feijóo’s investiture, but dynamiting a possible intention of the socialist candidate in Congress if he ties himself to Junts and ERC.

Especially if the payment is amnesty, as the Executive already values, or new steps towards Catalan self-determination.

Feijóo starts the round of contacts with a total of 172 supports in his pocket, his own 137 plus Vox’s 33 and the two from UPN and Coalición Canaria. An important majority that, however, is overshadowed by the majority of noes that it continues to have in the Lower House. Sánchez’s block seems impregnable.

But the leader of the PP will make a desperate attempt to attract the PNV, which has already denied Feijóo up to five times. Those of Ortuzar do contemplate a “courtesy” meeting with the investiture candidate, but they insist that they will not facilitate a PP government.

At this point, the PP will focus its dialogue with the jeltzales on the economic level, and will try to tempt them with more “financing” and “investments”, without ruling out a new Basque quota. Feijóo already demonstrated at the beginning of the year his commitment to the specificity of the tax system and the autonomy of the Basque Country when he distanced himself from Ciudadanos and Vox in the Senate and joined his votes to PSOE and PNV to process through the emergency route, without going through by commission or admit amendments, the updating of the quota and Basque concert.

It was one more gesture in his attempt to rebuild the bridges with the nationalists. But, for now, it has not managed to open cracks in the alliance between the PNV and Sánchez.

The popular ones also allude to the “responsibility” of those from Ortuzar to operate in an “intelligent” way within the framework of the investiture and mark distances with a block in which Bildu “is eating it by the feet”.

The proximity of the Basque elections reduces the margin for the PNV to get out of the pot and position itself in an equation in which, in addition, Vox is found.

But the popular leader could play one last trick with the jeltzales: not demand their yes to Feijóo’s investiture, but, at least, agree that they will not facilitate Sánchez’s either..

Together, valid interlocutor

The PP will only exclude EH Bildu from its round of contacts. But he will speak with the rest of the parliamentary forces, including the ERC or Junts. It is a strategic turn of Feijóo that denotes a certain anguish for not staying at the gates of Moncloa.

Just a few weeks ago, different spokespersons based in Genoa publicly denied that the PP was going to sit with the party of Carles Puigdemont, a “fugitive from Justice” and a “coup plotter” whose initials are “outside the Constitution”.

But the frame seems to have changed. So much so that the institutional deputy secretary, Esteban González Pons, minimized the process of “four people, five or 10” and justified his intention to call Junts in that it is a party “whose tradition and legality are not in doubt”. The goal is an abstention. The limits, they insist, continue to be in the Constitution.

SPAIN

Political Maneuvering and Strategic Alliances in Spanish Politics

Leave a comment

Alberto Núñez Feijóo has marked a path. But Pedro Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz will follow the one they had already traced, without deviating excessively from the course.

The leader of the PP has just over a month to try to gather support for his inauguration, between September 26 and 27, and the acting president and second vice president will take advantage of every minute before the advance countdown is activated election to do the same.

This Wednesday, shortly after Francina Armengol revealed that she will give the popular time to try to tie up support that today the left sees as impossible, Sumar revealed that she will hand over two deputies to ERC so that they can form their own group.

The PSOE, reluctant to reveal its steps, will do the same with its parliamentarians so that Junts sees this wish fulfilled. It is a courtesy gesture with several precedents, affirmed socialist sources, and confirmed it from the Government without giving many more clues.

A declaration of intent that comes to shield his strategy to form a majority that allows the investiture of Sánchez, which lands one of the demands formulated in the negotiations for the constitution of the Table, on August 17, and which seeks to lay the foundations for generate “confidence”, in the words of a member of the acting Executive.

Armengol’s decision to take into account the wishes of Feijóo, who initially wanted a plenary session as soon as possible and later chose to buy time to try to negotiate, surprised some sectors of the coalition parties.

The most common reading is that they have an extra month before the hands of the clock start to slip, that every minute counts to find the votes they need, which will be very difficult to tie up.

Feijóo has 172 endorsements, but in the PSOE and in Sumar they take it for granted that they can tie the 178 supports that would not only prevent the investiture of the PP leader, but would guarantee that of Sánchez, in the first round.

“Discretion” is the watchword between PSOE, Sumar and the pro-independence formations, but the talks continue. In parallel, Díaz’s party is already openly calling for an amnesty law for those prosecuted and convicted for their role in the Catalan process, a demand by Junts that can have a significant political cost, especially for the Socialists.

In the PSOE, they are more cautious and avoid the word amnesty, but Sánchez has gone from boasting that the independentistas have not achieved this claim, a little over a month ago, to rejecting the socialist mantra that the Constitution would not allow it. Sumar explores this path, and the PSOE does not reject it.

The fit, they explain from the socialist ranks, would be very delicate: beyond its legal dimension, which would have to be studied to the millimeter, it will be necessary to pamper aspects that even go through the name of the future norm, to try to reduce the damage that approval can cause them this amnesty.

On this path, however, in the PSOE and in Sumar they ridicule the actions of a PP that, after the elections, gave Junts legitimacy as an interlocutor, then took it away and for years has been very critical of this party, of Carles Puigdemont and with the group of pro-independence forces. This Wednesday, he recognized the “tradition and legality” of the party of the “fugitive from Justice”.

Seeing how Feijóo plans to talk with ERC, after years of political war between the two, seems almost poetic justice. And they believe, especially in Sumar, that it does not have any margin to scratch support.

That Borja Sémper, spokesman for the PP, appealed again to the socialist deputies, led the spokesman for the PSOE in Congress, Patxi López, to ask him to “stop fooling around”. While the Popular Party walks towards parliamentary failure, they insist, they move towards a plausible investiture.

However, the gesture towards Junts and ERC is not only symbolic. Having your own group guarantees access to an enormous amount of resources, starting with the grant of 30,000 euros per month per group and going through the right to recover the amount invested in electoral shipments on 23-J, and that only economically.

Having their own group guarantees visibility, more time for interventions and allows them to maintain a status that, without this agreement, neither group would have been able to revalidate.

This decision will go ahead by the majority of PSOE and Sumar at the Table (5/4) next Monday, but there are many other open fronts, such as the one that concerns the use of co-official languages in the Lower House, in which they are also working. Feijóo’s full investiture does not frustrate this roadmap.

SPAIN

Navigating Political Challenges: Feijóo’s Dilemmas in Spain’s Complex Landscape

Leave a comment

Regardless of the tug of war that he has agreed with the independentistas and how long the process lasts (there will be threats and suspense to feed the epic, as the national rhapsodes like), Sánchez will be sworn in as president.

I’m not saying that Feijóo shouldn’t try, but that, no matter how hard he tries, the script is written in advance. The sooner the scenario is assumed, the better for everyone, and especially for Feijóo, who is on everyone’s lips for having stayed in no man’s land.

As Javier Caraballo rightly pointed out, the Galician is still in a state of shock, sleeping with Michavila’s Excel files under his pillow, unable to assimilate the results of 23-J, as has been verified with his failed moves to move forward Cuca Gamarra’s candidacy, the expectations generated and her more than erratic relationship with Vox.

Now that we are going to have co-official languages even in the soup, someone will have to say that the time has come to drop the donkey and get to work in a legislature that seems to be one of the most complicated and vital in democracy..

The context is that of a period that begins as the previous one ended, at its peak of polarization and with the anger machine, that is, the social networks, operating at maximum power, as it cannot be otherwise if the PSOE begins to satisfy the requests of the string of partners, including the fugitive, who support him in power.

It is what Michael Reid, British journalist and author of Spain: The Trials and Triumphs of a Modern European, calls the narcissism of Spain’s small differences, or how local and regional interests are imposed on the generals in this kingdom of taifas, to Despite the fact that there are many more elements that unite us than those that separate us.

It is not only that Title VIII of the Constitution is imperfect, which could well be, and requires an ad hoc federalist debate, but that there are certain nationalist formations that have made coercion to the State their modus vivendi and, in case of lowering of the train, they run the risk of disappointing all that multitude of voters that they have dragged with them and that now they cannot control.

The mess of the co-official languages in the Lower House is paradigmatic of what is to come, although we all know that the main course will come with the amnesty and the referendum to the taste of the Catalan independentistas. Fish in the cave.

It will be difficult to satisfy these demands without leaving a few hairs (those of the Constitution) in the cat flap. It will be difficult to get out of this dilemma without ending the blocks with clubs.

The economic issue will also mark this new legislature, as it brings the end of the expansionary cycle and zero rates and the return of fiscal rules, which will lead to significant tax increases and a more than notable cut in spending.

Of the first, increasing tax pressure, Sánchez has a curriculum that supports him as an accomplished leader, but of the second, putting in the scissors, he has not shown any signs of knowing how to do it and, even less, of how to reach an agreement with the rest of his allies..

The other hot potato that will have to be unblocked will be that of the judiciary, where PSOE and PP have staged a sad spectacle, ignoring their constitutional obligations and leaving Justice in the dark by not being able to renew many of the vacant positions.. If this situation continues over time, Brussels has already warned of the opening of a sanctioning procedure. The situation is untenable.

A devilish scenario —crossed interests, political tension, deficit cut, judicial pact— that requires a plan from someone who won the elections, but who, due to the prevailing bibloquism, is called upon to lead the opposition.

The first unknown that he has to clear up is whether he, accustomed to governing with an absolute majority in Galicia, is willing to cross the desert. If so, which should, because the data supports it, you have to say it loud and make a team according to the needs. A team that will not be to govern, but to fight the copper from the second line.

You will have to develop a plan according to the situation. Sánchez is going to govern and he is going to do so for a more or less long period. If he enters the rag of the polarizing game, Feijóo has everything to lose, as could be verified in the general passes. In the field of you more, the president is unbeatable.

If he focuses on the economy, as he should have done last season, and didn’t, he has more to gain. No matter how much the PSOE takes advantage of the macro data, the electorate does not end up trusting the spendthrift policy of the Socialists based on past experiences.

With everything and with that, the main point that Feijóo must clarify, the one that weighs on him like a stone and has weighed down his chances of reaching Moncloa, is the one referring to the role of Vox in his relationship with the Popular Party. Until you clear up this unknown, the elephant will still be in the room.

The voter does not punish the PP so much for the fact that it is or is not a friend of those of Abascal as for its ambiguity when it comes to speaking and dealing with this formation. Either with or without you. There are no more options. Feijóo must choose.

SPAIN

Swearing-In Controversy and Political Dynamics Mark the Start of the XV Legislature

Leave a comment

Pedro Sánchez’s big smile came 15 minutes before the start of the session. The XV Legislature began and the President of the Government was seen happy in his parade through the courtyard of Congress.

Junts had just given her that gift that was so hard to ask for: Francina Armengol would have her votes to be president of the Lower House. The same thing was announced by ERC, although there was not so much surprise here.

The PSOE candidate was proposed as a gesture to the Catalan independentistas, the PSOE’s trump card for a new investiture. But that did not prevent the usual tag lines from reaching the chamber when it was time to swear the Constitution.

And they were very different. Vox deputies were sworn in “for Spain”, while pro-independence parliamentarians heard proclamations in Catalan and for “the mandate of October 1”. While the members of Junts spoke of “loyalty to the people of Catalonia”, those of ERC did so about the “Catalan republic”.

When the former promised “for the commitment and defense of all those repressed and exiled”, the latter made no mention of the politicians who fled after the referendum. They did agree on the famous “by legal imperative”, which has been heard on other occasions when complying with the Magna Carta.

On the left, the newly appointed third vice president of the Chamber, Esther Gil, promised the position “for a plurinational and feminist Spain”.

Enrique Santiago, former Secretary of State for the 2030 Agenda until he was relieved by Lilith Vestrynge, did it “for the Republic”.

And the Andalusian deputy of the IU Toni Valero joined with a plea “for the anti-Franco struggle, for freedoms, for Andalusia, for Spain, the peoples and humanity”, taking phrases from the Andalusian anthem.

Controversy over oaths

But it didn’t rain to everyone’s liking. PP and Vox asked to annul the oaths, alluding to the content and language in which many of them were expressed. Even when the president of the Chamber herself, Armengol, began her first speech by greeting in all the co-official languages. Also the farewell.

The former Balearic president did not accept their requests and endorsed the chosen formulas. In addition, he reminded them that the Constitutional Court rejected just a few months ago the appeal that the popular ones already presented in 2019 for this same reason..

The tag lines that pro-independence deputies use to swear in office are rarely exempt from controversy. When Oriol Junqueras promised in the last legislature “as a political prisoner”, “from the Republican commitment” and “by legal imperative”, Congress was revolutionized.

It was May 21, 2019, and the ERC leader had then been in pretrial detention for two years for the 1-O referendum. At that time, the trial of the procés was still developing. Months later, a firm sentence would arrive -two years later, the pardon-, but then the opposition reproached the president of the Table, the socialist Meritxell Batet, for allowing such words.

After that session, the PP filed an appeal before the Constitutional Court. They considered that their right to political representation was being violated by receiving unequal treatment compared to other deputies, those who used unconventional formulas when abiding by the Magna Carta.

Although his request was admitted for processing, the Constitutional Court rejected it and endorsed the expressions used by the independentistas when he assumed his seat.. The resolution came just a few months ago, but these types of controversies have much longer.

30 years ago, the judicial body already analyzed the famous tagline that nationalists and pro-independence supporters still use today when abiding by the Constitution: “by legal imperative”.

The socialist Félix Pons expelled three members of Herri Batasuna from the chamber for adding this phrase and denied them the “full condition” of deputies. But the magistrates knocked down their measure and, from that moment, the “yes, I swear” and the “yes, I promise” remained as the only conditions to be sworn in..

Other anecdotes from the session

If Cuca Gamarra’s chances to preside over Congress were nil from the first hour, after Junts’ yes to the socialists, Vox’s position did not help either. Those of Abascal decided to vote for their own candidate, Ignacio Gil Lázaro, as a reproach for being left out of the Table even though they were third force. Neither vice-presidencies, nor secretaries. But it ended up reflecting the gulf that still exists between both parties..

So the prize went to Armengol. When they said her name by 178 votes, the first thing the former Balearic president did was melt into a hug with Patxi López, by her side. Or Patxi the Brief. The PSOE spokesman in Congress presided over the body in that short legislature of 2019 for 126 days.

One of the great anecdotes of the day happened right at the beginning. When it came to listing the 350 deputies that make up the new Chamber, there was only one name that was missing: that of Tesh Sidi. The number 3 of Sumar was not summoned at her debut as a parliamentarian, and she had to notify the Age Table before starting the vote for the presidency.

On the other hand, this is Feijóo’s first time in Congress. At least fully. He was already in the debate on the state of the nation in July last year, but since he was not an elected deputy, he could not speak despite already being the leader of the opposition, after unseating Pablo Casado.

This has been the first day of a political course that, whether or not there is a repetition of the elections, already from the beginning aims to give a lot to talk about.