Tag Archives: Uncertainty

Spain’s Political Landscape Tense Ahead of Investiture Decision

Felipe VI’s consultations with the different political forces are advancing, but some do not want to show all their cards and others admit they are unable to clear up the question of whether or not there will be an investiture session next week.

Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo will attend the round of meetings at Zarzuela this Tuesday without having guaranteed the necessary support, after a month of discreet conversations and a contact that resulted in the formation of a Board controlled by the majority of the parties that support the government in office.

Feijóo maintains his willingness to submit to the vote despite the weak situation in which he finds himself and with the support of Vox now in doubt. Sánchez, for his part, threatens to leave him free to delve into the wear and tear of another parliamentary defeat. But it is the King who has the ball in his court. You have three options: propose Sánchez, Feijóo… or delay the decision. The PNV points out that the round of contacts will not serve to designate a solid candidate.

UPN and the Canarian Coalition have shielded their support for Feijóo, but he would not even get out of the siding by adding Vox. In this scenario, other parties consulted by El Confidencial are already agitating the scenario of a second round of consultations, which would give the leader of the PP and, above all, Sánchez, more time to try to tie up the support they need.

They require an absolute majority in the first vote, more yes than no 48 hours later. And, of the four parties that have excluded themselves from the talks with the monarch, Junts per Catalunya is the great unknown. Puigdemont continues to hold the key for the coalition to remain in Moncloa.

On Monday, the acting second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, criticized that these formations have “declined” to go to consultations to “explain” their positions. The leader of Sumar was very careful not to venture what Felipe VI will do, after his interview with the monarch, but he also made it clear that there is only “one real possibility” of obtaining the majority: that of the block of which he is a part.

For their part, acting Executive sources acknowledge that, although the negotiation is expected to be difficult, Junts has taken “very important steps”, not only with its support in the voting of the Table. They also point out that the position that Vox adopts this Tuesday, after his appointment with Felipe VI, will be decisive in clarifying whether the King will designate Feijóo as a candidate.

If it has 172 endorsements, they say, it would make some sense that it wanted to make them visible. Although they are not enough to make him president. The PSOE, as it did since the general elections of 23-J, steps on the brake.

This Monday, the acting Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, demanded to give the King “time” to decide on the candidate, almost in parallel to the fact that his party communicated to Feijóo that it will not make efforts to prevent him from running for a “fake investiture “.

On the one hand, the Socialists charged against the Popular Party for pressing the monarch “daily” to propose Feijóo and, on the other, they gloated that the conservative leader attended an investiture without having his support tied up, assuming that will crash against the parliamentary majority.

Sánchez’s little haste collides with Feijóo’s accelerated roadmap. Despite the doubts that important party leaders express in private, the PP leader will ask the King to propose him as a candidate to go to an investiture session, even with the almost certainty that it will end in failure.

Some barons of the PP support the decision of the leadership, understanding that Feijóo must reverse the feeling of defeat that has settled in the ranks of the popular and fight as the “winner of the elections”.

Despite the more than possible failure, the party leadership reiterates that starring in an investiture would allow Feijóo to present “a model of the country”. A session with campaign overtones before a possible scenario of a return to the polls in December.

In the PP there are other voices that warn, however, that exposing themselves to another parliamentary defeat after the “ridicule” of the Congress Table would be “suicide” for Feijóo.

The same sources urge the popular leader to “assume reality” and prepare for a “tough” opposition to Sánchez to bring down a government as soon as possible that, if consummated, would be mired in “instability”.. “We lack a logical and solid parliamentary majority to govern,” say critics of Feijóo’s strategy.

As El Confidencial announced, the PP leader’s plan goes from the outset to achieve the King’s order to force an investiture in the last week of August. If, as everything indicates, it is unsuccessful -Feijóo needs an absolute majority-, a period of two months would automatically open to light a government majority.

In the event that no vote has prospered within that period, the Cortes would be dissolved and elections would be held at the end of the year, with the horizon set at December 17. PP parliamentary sources confirm that if they receive the green light in the Zarzuela, the session could be set for next week, on August 30 or 31.

In this case, it would be the new president of Congress, Francina Armengol, who must give the final go-ahead to Feijóo’s calendar. But the popular do not believe that the socialist leader put obstacles. “The more time passes, the more expensive Junts and ERC can make their support”, they trust.

In Ferraz, in fact, they confirmed this Monday that they will let Feijóo walk towards his “third setback” if he is chosen by the King. “We are not going to elbow each other,” added socialist sources.

Genoa insists that Feijóo will arrive at the meeting with the King with more support than Sánchez has, since he does not yet have the explicit support of the PNV, Junts or ERC. But the game could be more complicated for Feijóo due to the break with Vox.

Santiago Abascal will be the first of the leaders who will meet with Felipe VI this Tuesday, and the party has not yet confirmed whether it will convey to the monarch that its 33 deputies will support Feijóo if he is proposed or, on the contrary, avoid compromising that support.

At this time, Feijóo has 139 tied votes. Only with Sumar, Sánchez adds 152. If this scenario is confirmed, the option that Felipe VI chooses to delay the decision and repeat the round of consultations later would win integers.

Vox has made its support for Feijóo conditional on him “picking up the phone” and clarifying whether he “opts for the Murcia or Valencia route” in his relationship with Abascal. The ultra party has not forgiven the PP for leaving it out of the Congress Table, and demands “urgent explanations” before clarifying the meaning of its vote.

“If Feijóo wants to raise a sanitary cordon for Vox, he will not have our support,” warn sources close to Abascal. So far, Genoa has not given in to pressure and there have been no contacts between the two directions. They trust, however, that Abascal “keeps his word” and does not get out of the equation at a key moment.

Political Uncertainty as Felipe VI Navigates Uncharted Waters

Discount time has begun for Felipe VI. The Head of State finds himself in a situation never experienced in almost half a century of democracy in Spain. Two candidates say they want to be appointed by the King to form a government.

The most voted, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, relies on the argument of being the leader of the first political force. However, after Vox yesterday broke the promised support for the PP candidate, Cuca Gamarra, after the party’s refusal to give them a seat on the table, Feijóo would not add enough support and would only be left with their representatives -137, plus the UPN deputy and the representative of Coalition Canaria-. It remains pending what position Santiago Abascal takes and if the break is maintained.

Pedro Sánchez, socialist candidate and acting president, has been running since 23-J as the ideal person to form a government despite being the second force. However, the support of Junts yesterday during the vote of the members of the Table brought him closer to La Moncloa again. So the King has two politicians running, but without a clear picture to form a government.

Constitutionalists consulted by EL MUNDO stress that the very existence of the round of consultations implies an assessment of the situation. And based on that, he must calibrate not only the votes obtained, but the support he can gather to be sworn in as president.. Francesc Carreras is positioned in this sense.

«I see the procedure very clearly», he assures, invoking article 99 of the Constitution: «After each renewal of the Congress of Deputies, and in the other constitutional cases in which it proceeds, the King, after consulting with the representatives designated by political groups with parliamentary representation, and through the President of Congress, will propose a candidate for the Presidency of the Government».

Francina Armengol is the only clear name right now. The new president of Congress has as its first function to draw up a list with the spokespersons of each parliamentary group and send it to the King. Before each new constitution of the Table of Congress, the Head of State has always received the new president in audience.

It will be the same with Armengol, who, after that first meeting, today, will send you the names of the spokespersons. So, the Head of State will set two days for the consultations, probably not before the middle of next week or at the beginning of the last week of August.. the date is important.

If it were already held in September, the chances of a hypothetical electoral repetition falling at Christmas would be full. Therefore, two options are considered for the investiture: either the end of August or the end of September, so that a new appointment with the polls would already be in January.

Don Felipe meets with the candidates in a protocol order from highest to lowest parliamentary weight and listens to their proposals. Several of Sánchez’s potential partners, predictably, will not even attend the appointment in Zarzuela. Once the consultations have been carried out, the King must propose as a candidate whoever he believes has the support to form a Government.

“In a parliamentary system, the party with the most votes is not the one that can form a government,” recalls Carreras, who insists that in article 99 “what is implicit is that the King has to propose whoever has the best chances.”. If he proposes the most voted knowing that he does not gather support, “the one who would lose would be the King, not the candidate,” he says.

Six legislatures and nine rounds

Felipe VI knows the procedure perfectly. He has six legislatures and nine rounds of consultations in his reign. Don Juan Carlos held 10 rounds of consultations. Four failed and three effective investitures with two Prime Ministers: Rajoy and Sánchez have emerged from these appointments with parliamentary spokesmen.

According to article 56.1 of the Constitution, the King “arbitrates and moderates the regular functioning of the institutions”. Felipe VI invokes all legal means to be able to form a government. This happened in 2016, when he commissioned Rajoy to form a government, who declined the constitutional mandate.

The head of state had to repeat the rounds of consultations and order Sánchez to form a government, which did not obtain enough votes. Rajoy won and the King ordered him to form a government, but he did not succeed in the first round, so there was a new round from which the popular party was already invested. Between the first consultations of that year and the opening of the next legislature, 10 months passed with a government in office.

The elections that followed the vote of no confidence did not yield a clear winner. The King called two new rounds but elections were held again. A single round of consultations at that time was enough for the head of state to commission Sánchez to form a government. Now, the King will listen to the spokesmen in a new round of consultations to decide who to appoint.